Small-Maturity Asymptotics for the At-The-Money Implied Volatility Slope in Lévy Models

We consider the at-the-money (ATM) strike derivative of implied volatility as the maturity tends to zero. Our main results quantify the behaviour of the slope for infinite activity exponential Lévy models including a Brownian component. As auxiliary results, we obtain asymptotic expansions of short maturity ATM digital call options, using Mellin transform asymptotics. Finally, we discuss when the ATM slope is consistent with the steepness of the smile wings, as given by Lee’s moment formula.     

Skewness Term-Structure Tests

In this paper, we conduct skewness term-structure tests to check whether the temporal structure of risk-neutral skewness is consistent with rational expectations. Because risk-neutral skewness is substantially mean reverting, skewness shocks should decay quickly and risk-neutral skewness of more distant option should display the rationally expected smoothing behaviour. Using an equilibrium asset and option-pricing model in a production economy under jump diffusion with stochastic jump intensity, we derive this elasticity analytically. In an empirical application of the model using more than 20 years of data on S&P500 index options, we find that this elasticity turns out to be different than suggested under rational expectations – smaller on the short end (underreaction) and larger on the long end (overreaction) of the ‘skewness curve’.     

Gas storage valuation applying numerically constructed recombining trees

The liberalization of European natural gas markets forces market participants to base their decisions on market prices. For owners and operators of natural gas storage facilities it is therefore necessary to take market prices into account for their decisions. In this framework this paper provides a new approach for the valuation of natural gas storage facilities. Using stochastic dynamic programming on multinomial recombining trees, the optimal storage strategy and value are determined. For this we (i) estimate the deterministic and random impacts on natural gas prices, (ii) simulate gas prices considering the results of the first step, (iii) construct numerically the recombining tree using the simulation results, (iv) determine the optimal storage strategy and value. Besides the determination of the optimal storage value and operation schedule the value quantiles are calculated. Via the quantiles relevant risk measures like value at risk and conditional value at risk are determined.     

分数维Vasicek利率模型下的欧式期权定价公式

假定股票价格和利率的运动过程服从几何分数维布朗运动,利用风险对冲技术,分数维布朗运动随机分析理论与偏微分方程方法,得到了分数维Vasicek随机利率下欧式期权所满足的定价方程,获得了波动率是对间函数的情形下欧式看涨和看跌期权的一般定价公式以及它们的平价公式.     

分数跳-扩散环境下几种新型期权定价模型

假定股票价格遵循分数跳-扩散过程,利用公平保费原则和价格过程的实际测度,获得几种新型期权——欧式看涨幂期权、欧式上封顶及下保底看涨幂期权定价公式.对期权定价模型进行了推广.     

屏蔽数据情形下几何平均亚式期权定价模型

通常情况下,前人的工作都是连续情形下的结论,假定股票价格部分信息被屏蔽,只在有限的时刻点上股票价格是明确已知的.在此假设之下,尝试考虑几何平均型亚式期权定价问题.利用拟-鞅的方法,建立了分数布朗运动环境下亚式期权定价模型,获得了离散情形几何加权平均亚式期权价格的解析表达式.     

An efficient algorithm for Bermudan barrier option pricing

An efficient option pricing method based on Fourier-cosine expansions was presented by Fang and Oosterlee for European options in 2008,and later,this method was also used by them to price early-exercis...     

基于鞅方法下分数布朗运动欧式回望期权的定价

利用分数布朗运动研究了一种强路径依赖型期权—回望期权的定价问题.首先列出了有关的定义和引理;其次利用该定义和引理建立了分数布朗运动情况下的价格模型,通过鞅方法,得到了回望期权价格所满足的方程;最后分别给出了看跌回望期权和看涨回望期权的定价公式的显式解.     

基于利润—CVaR的期权契约供应链协调

文章以一个风险厌恶销售商与风险中性供应商所组成的两级供应链为背景,以条件风险价值(CVaR)和期望利润的加权平均作为销售商的决策目标,对期权契约下销售商的订购策略及供应链协调问题进行了研究,并对比分析了销售商以CVaR为目标时的情形。在给出销售商在不同风险厌恶程度下的最优订购策略后,文章进一步给出了供应链相应的协调条件,并分析了此时期权权利金,销售商的风险厌恶程度和期望利润权重等参数对供销双方收益的影响,发现“利润-CVaR”法下销售商的风险厌恶程度对供销双方利润的影响与CVaR法下的情况有所不同,但权利金依然起到了分配整体供应链利润的作用,且销售商期望利润权重的增加会降低自身收益水平而提高供应商利润。最后,文章通过数值模拟的方式对上述结论进行了验证。     

基于期权契约的应急药品储备模型研究

突发灾害发生后,应急药品需求数量呈现爆发式增长,充足的应急药品对减少和控制人员伤亡、保障救灾效果及减少经济损失具有重要作用。由于应急药品的需求特性和自然属性,我国现行的应急药品储备模式很容易造成应急药品短缺或过期,也无法保证政府与医药企业长久的合作关系,因此如何科学合理地储备应急药品成为政府亟待解决的关键难题。为此,本文引入期权契约到政府与医药企业组成的两级供应链系统,构建了期权契约机制下应急药品储备模型,得出政企最优决策策略及双方成本收益,给出了实现供应链协调与政企双赢的条件。研究表明,应急药品储备模型提高了应急药品储备水平,降低了政府库存风险,有利于保障供应商合理收益及控制政府成本,为政企建立长久的合作关系提供了依据,为应急药品储备提供了可行的操作策略。